Gold continues to churn in a range between 1280 -1290 and is looking for a level to break out in either direction. It’s looking more likely that the next move will be down, and that Gold is headed to the 1220-1240 level.

The Trade Wars have stalled which is no surprise based on the timing of the last meeting which was just hours ahead of the deadline. The announcement and failure to come to an agreement as tariffs kicked in at midnight has done nothing to the price of gold.

As we have written many times as this consolidation pattern tightens it is setting up for a much bigger move and based on the last 6 months that move should be lower. Of course, there are no guarantees that the next move will be down, but the probability is greater for a sell off than a rally.

Although we think gold will trade higher in the next few years, it appears headed lower now and for the foreseeable future. We are sellers of rallies until proven otherwise.

Todd Horwitz
Chief Strategist